Rough predictions start to the season. One always thinks that a team is going to be fully integrated and in mid-season form in the first game, and that often isn’t the case. Between the many national team tournaments this past summer and the transfer moves, some teams aren’t used to playing with each other. Then there’s the refereeing in the Atletico Madrid game, which was a travesty by itself. Nonetheless, the season continues and we persist. Week 2 gambling predictions:
Premier League:
Manchester United (-1, +105/-160) @ Southampton
Manchester United made a statement on opening day: purchasing Raphael doesn’t mean that we’ve turned into a defensive team. Man U dropped a fiver on Southampton, with 4 of the 5 goals coming in just 16 minutes during the second half. Bruno Fernandes appears to have continued his form from last season right into this season, and looks more and more like a steal at 55 million euros (not including add-ons) each week. Southampton also made a statement on opening day, but not the kind they were hoping for. It’s clear that the Saints are missing Danny Ings up top and Jannik Vestergaard at the back. There’s hope that Adam Armstrong and Mohammed Salisu will develop into good replacements, but developing into those key replacements by Sunday’s game? Unlikely.
Chelsea (-1, Even; -130) @ Arsenal
I usually avoid picking rivalry games because anything can happen, but in this battle for London, I have to take the Blues. Chelsea got off to a great start to the season against Crystal Palace, handily beating the south Londoners 3-0. This score-line was even more impressive when you consider that new signing Romelu Lukaku did not play for the Blues. Arsenal’s start was not nearly as impressive, losing to Premier League newcomers and west London team Brentford 2-0. Brentford looked energetic, Arsenal created very few quality chances, and had trouble getting the ball on frame when those chances arose. Chelsea’s backline, midfield, and attacking talent are all better than Arsenal’s talent, plus it appears that Aubameyang and Lacazette will be out, so if Chelsea can keep it together during this rivalry showdown, they should leave the Emirates with a win. But like I said before, it’s a London derby, so anything can happen…
Tottenham – I am not picking Tottenham over the Wolverhampton this weekend, and I imagine some people will say “but they beat Man City last weekend without Harry Kane,” so I’m going to explain my feelings on Tottenham. Tottenham are a quality team that do have quite a bit of talent. I like the Cristian Romero signing, though I do not understand why Lo Celso does not start more regularly in the midfield for them. That being said, why I am staying away from picking Tottenham is precisely because of the Harry Kane situation. Until he is either sold or the transfer window has closed, a star striker with rumors of huge transfer offers is exactly the kind situation that can cause a team to lose focus. They did not lose focus, beat Man City in the opener, and I commend them for that; however, until the Harry Kane situation is resolved, I think there is instability in the locker room, and betting on an unstable team is generally not a profitable endeavor.
La Liga:
Barcelona (-110) @ Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona showed they are a little vulnerable at the back, but also showed that they are still a forced to be reckoned with, even without Lionel Messi. Barcelona played in a more fluid shaped, morphing between a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 throughout the game. Arguably the most impressive part of their opener vs. Real Sociedad was the off-ball movement, which was something that was seriously lacking last season. Frenkie de Jong and Pedri are clearly the future of this team, but Memphis put in an outstanding performance as well. The performance looked to be one of consistent talent, not a one-off great game. Athletic, meanwhile, drew in their opener against Elche. They looked exactly like a team that finished 10th in La Liga: average, middling, nothing special. Frankly, if it wasn’t for an unexplainable first-half miss by Pere Milla, Athletic would be 0-0-1. Athletic do have some talented players in Inaki Williams and Iker Muniain, so they do have the potential to be a dangerous team, but Barcelona should be able to handle them, even away at San Mames.
Atletico Madrid (-475) vs. Elche
I usually don’t like making picks when odds are this obvious, but Atletico Madrid showed some real talent against Celta Vigo in the opener. While the score-line read 2-1, Atletico dominated the game, the Vigo goal was from a very questionable penalty call, and Correa looked to be in midseason form up top. Unfortunately, Correa’s performance was overshadowed by the double red card (Hermoso will be missing this match) and the truly abysmal refereeing. When you give a yellow card to the player that was fouled on two separate occasions, you probably shouldn’t be refereeing top-level matches. Just disgraceful. Nothing against Elche, who should have won their opener against Athletic Bilbao, but Atletico looked like the La Liga winners that they were last season, so I’ve got to stick with Los Rojiblancos.
Bundesliga:
Borussia Dortmund (-1, Even; -200) @ SC Freiburg
Own goal by Passlack aside, Dortmund looked great in their opener against Eintract Frankfurt. Even if there are defensive questions (odd seeing Witsel play center-back), Dortmund have an incredible amount of offensive firepower that should compensate for any defensive deficiencies. Haaland, Reyna, Reus, Hazard, Bellingham… Bundesliga teams should respect the attacking talent and the plethora of options. Freiburg, on the other hand, were the better of the two teams in their opener, but played Bundesliga newcomer Bielefeld. Nothing against Bielefeld, but the talent gulf between Bielefeld and Dortmund is…enormous. If Freiburg couldn’t get it done against Bielefeld, it’s hard to imagine them taking a point from an in-form Dortmund team.
Borussia Monchengladbach (+0.5, -120; +195) @ Bayer Leverkusen
Getting a draw against Bayern is no small feat, and it could be argued that Monchengladbach deserved more. Monchengladbach’s backline was pretty solid against a very talented attack from Bayern, but it was the counter-attacking and open field play from Monchengladbach that really stole the show. Plea, Stindl, and, when he came on, Thuram all created transition scoring chances. Neuhaus and Kramer were both solid in the midfield. Overall, I was very impressed with the Monchengladbach performance. Last week, I picked Leverkusen with the caveat that Union Berlin has a knack from getting a point against teams that may have more talent. That’s exactly what happened here with the 1-1 draw. Bayer had more possession were probably the better team, but failed to convert when it counted. So, once again, Bayer Leverkusen is in my risky game to bet this week, but this time I’m picking against them.
Ligue 1:
AS Monaco (-0.5, -110; -140) vs. Lens
I know, I took Monaco last week, raved about how good they could/would be, and then they let us down. And I’m a little nervous to take them again this week for two reasons. First, Niko Kovac’s lineup in the season opener should be serious questioned. Failing to start two of your best players (Ben Yedder and Golovin) in the season opener is concerning. Second, Monaco played in a UCL qualifier on Tuesday against Shakhtar Donetsk. Will Kovac play another weird lineup again in an attempt to rest players for the second-leg on Wednesday? That being said, I still believe Monaco has an impressive amount of talent in their side and will be playing their home opener against Lens, a decent team with a good young center-back in Facundo Medina, but a team that is decisively less talented than Monaco. I might be going down with the ship, but I’m going with Monaco again.
Stade Rennais (-0.5, -110; -110) vs. Nantes
Nantes got off to a good start this season, but a win over Metz isn’t exactly impressive. Stade Rennais was less than impressive with a draw against Brest. However, Stade Rennais, between Jeremy Doku, Kamaldeen Sulemana, and Eduardo Camavinga, has an impressive amount of young talent. It may be too early in the season to bet on this talent, but I’m going to go with Brittons in Week 3 of Ligue 1.
Serie A:
Lazio (-1, Even; -125) @ Empoli
Lazio didn’t make much noise in the transfer market this summer, though they were able to nab 16-year-old wonderkid Luka Romero from RCD Mallorca. That being said, Lazio also didn’t lose any key players…yet (looking your way, Joaquin Correa). Anyway, Lazio looks to have retained its top talents: Immobile, Milinkovic-Savic, and Luis Alberto, while adding Felipe Anderson to the attacking group on the cheap. While there weren’t a lot of improvements made, Lazio finished 6th in Serie A last year and was a quality team, so they should be solid again this season. Empoli also did not permanently add much talent, but unlikely Lazio, the newly promoted side probably should have. Patrick Cutrone is a pretty good loan signing from Wolverhampton, and Samuele Ricci is a young midfielder destined for great things both in Serie A and with the Azzurri, but overall, Lazio is a substantially more talented team.
Juventus (-1, -120; -190) @ Udinese
We’ll keep this one short: Juventus is the most talented team in Serie A. Udinese lost their starting goalkeeper, Juan Musso, to Atalanta. Udinese also lost their best player and key link to any offensive production, Rodrigo de Paul, to Atletico Madrid (10 assists in Serie A last season). They brought in a less talented replacement in goal (sorry Marco Silvestri) and don’t have anyone who can fill de Paul’s shoes. Juve underperformed last season, but should dominate this game.
Cagliari (-0.5, +105; +105) vs. Spezia
Spezia overperformed expectations and avoided relegation last season; however, they didn’t build on that success and failed to bring in any big playmakers to help them avoid relegation this season. Cagliari significantly underperformed expectations, narrowly avoiding relegation (actually finishing below Spezia), but made a few key additions during the summer. Cagliari signed Razvan Marin, who played well for Cagliari, signed Kevin Strootman on loan, and, most importantly, hung on to both Nahitan Nandez and Giovanni Simeone. This can be seen as a risky bet given Cagliari’s serious underperformance last season, but Cagliari has the talent to open the season with 3 points at home.
Big Five FC 