As top teams prepare to shift to playing both league and European competitions (starting September 15), fans may be interested to know what teams are in which Europa League groups and how the groups may breakdown. I can’t do a Champions League Predictions preview and leave out the other major European tournament (the Europa Conference League is a money grab and I will not support that). Below is an analysis of the makeup of each group, which teams had the luck of the draw on their side, and how the group phase may play out:
Group A: Brondby, Lyon, Rangers, Sparta Prague
Lyon is the team with the most spending power in this group and also happens to be the strongest team in this group by a wide margin. Moussa Dembele, who recently returned from loan, has started the season with 3 goals in 4 games. Lyon also had a good balance of experienced players with young players. Youngsters like Cherki, Caqueret, Aouar, and Diomande can learn from more experienced players like Slimani, Lopes, Shaqiri, and Mendes during European play. This balance of youth and experience should help Lyon rotate players to keep fresh legs throughout both the Ligue 1 and Europa League campaign. Beyond Lyon, the second knockout round spot should be a battle between Sparta Prague and Rangers. Sparta Prague managed to retain Adam Hlozek this summer, and he is likely to start up top, but Rangers is a much more rounded team, with Morelos, Hagi, Kent, and Kamara all expected to be contributors. While Brondby has shown an ability to compete in the Danish League, it is unlikely that they will be able to consistently compete with the teams in this group; however, Brondby could always play spoiler at home and steal a point or three points that may be vital to another team’s advancement to the knockout round. Without that spoiler, however, Lyon and Rangers should advance to the knockout, while Sparta Prague and Brondby are out.
Group B: Monaco, PSV Eindhoven, Real Sociedad, SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz was unlucky and got drawn into a group with three very talented teams. It looks like the group stage may be the end of the Europa League Road for Sturm Graz. That leaves two spots for the knockout round and three teams: PSV, Real Sociedad, and Monaco. PSV may be the most interesting of those three teams, possessing a nice balance between important youth contributors like Madueke, Sangare, and Teze and experienced players like Carlos Vinicius, Bruma, and World Cup winner Mario Gotze. In the qualifying stage, PSV showed an ability to get forward and put pressure on an opposing back-line, but also showed that they were vulnerable with their own back-line and susceptible to counterattacks. Real Sociedad may be the most talented team in this group. Oyarzabal, Merino, Sorloth, and Isak are all full internationals, in good form, and should provide the offensive firepower that Real Sociedad needs to advance to the knockout round. I was very high on AS Monaco early this season. I liked the development of Badiashile and Tchouameni and was very impressed by the signing of Myron Boadu. So far, however, my high expectations have not been met, and Monaco sits in 14th place. Monaco still has the talent and time to turn it around, but as of right now, their form is not that of a team that will advance to the Europa League knockout rounds. Real Sociedad and PSV advance, Monaco and SK Sturm Graz are out.
Group C: Legia Warsaw, Leicester City, Napoli, Spartak Moscow
Legia Warsaw has a few players who have played for Big Five leagues during their career, but overall, Legia just doesn’t have the roster talent to compete with the other teams in this group. Therefore, the teams that advance will be two of these three: Leicester City, Napoli, Spartak Moscow. Leicester City has been a bit disappointing to start the season. They have tallied two unconvincing wins against Wolverhampton Wolves and Norwich City, but they lost heavily to fellow Europa League team West Ham (4-1). Leicester has some top class talent, and I would be more confident to send them on to the knockout stage if they had demonstrated some decent form, but that has yet to be seen. Napoli has had a significant amount of player turnover in recent years, but has managed to hang on to three key stars (at least for this season): Dries Mertens, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Lorenzo Insigne. These three leaders, supported by Fabian Ruiz, Diego Demme, and Piotr Zielinski, should possess enough talent to get Napoli through this group and into the knockout stages. Napoli’s fifth place in Serie A form should also help the southern Italian team, although they were recently dismantled by Benevento in a club friendly, losing 5-1. Spartak Moscow is a team right up there with Leicester in terms of disappointing form. Spartak has been wildly inconsistent in league play, finding themselves in 10th place in a league that they should be (mostly) dominating. On top of that, Spartak was entirely unconvincing in their aggregate 4-0 defeat to Benfica in the Champions League qualifying round. Gigot, Larsson, and Victor Moses all have some quality to them, but it’s likely not enough to get Spartak through to the knockout rounds. Napoli and Leceister advance, Spartak and Legia are out.
Group D: Antwerp, Eintracht Frankfurt, Fenerbahce, Olympiacos
This group might actually be the most unpredictable/unstable group in Europa League. Frankfurt is struggling without Andre Silva and Luka Jovic, despite the addition of Rafael Santos Borre; Fenerbahce added Uruguayan Diego Rossi on loan, but Mesut Ozil is allegedly unhappy due to playing time and injuries, so that locker room or the locker room leadership could be tumultuous; Olympiacos has inconsistent attacking play, but is always a difficult team to play in European competition; and Antwerp recently acquired some exceptionally talented players, including Johannes Eggestein, Victor Fischer, and former national team star Radja Nainggolan. Eintracht is probably still the most talented team in the group overall, but any of these four teams could advance to the knockout stages or could be out. Given that unpredictability, I have Eintracht Frankfurt and Antwerp going through to the knockout stage, and Fenerbahce and Olympiacos out.
Group E: Galatasaray, Lazio, Lokomotiv Moscow, Marseille
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Lazio is the most talented team in this group and is miles ahead of whichever team is second (probably Marseille). Lazio has lethal attacking play (Immobile, Luis Alberto), a talented midfield led by an elite midfielder (Milinkovic-Savic), and a strong and experienced backline (Radu, Patric, Acerbi). The next most talented team in this group is likely Olympique de Marseille, whose summer window I was actually very impressed with. Gerson, Harit, and Under are all good attacking midfield options, Milik is a great attacking option, and Saliba and Lirola are both talented young defenders. Galatasaray and Lokomotiv Moscow both have some talent (Babel and Muslera; Miranchuk and Smolov, respectively), but the talent between Lazio and Marseille will likely triumph over the Turks and Russians. Lazio and Marseille through to the knockout round, Galatasaray and Lokomotiv Moscow out.
Group F: Ludogorets, Midtjylland, Red Star Belgrade, Braga
If there was a “weakest group” in the Europa League draw, this would be it. Having not seen two of these teams play, I’ll just offer a couple of insights and keep this section short. Ludogorets, despite being significantly out-spent, has had some recent success in Europa League play, making it out of the group stage in the 2019/2020 competition. Midtjylland may exhibit some exciting attacking play, with Pione Sisto and Evander expected to feature heavily. Red Star Belgrade features La Liga and MLS player Aleksandar Katai, former Serie A player Filippo Falco, and Canadian goalkeeper Milan Borjan starring for the squad. Rajko Mitic Stadium is also one of the most difficult stadiums for an away team to play in throughout Europe, so home games should be advantageous for Red Star. Braga has some significant attacking talent, with Abel Ruiz, Lucas Piazon, and the Horta brothers (Ricardo and Andre) expected to contribute to the attack. Additionally, Braga managed to secure some talented players on loan, including up-and-coming defensive star Diogo Leite and midfield stalwart Chiquinho. In the end, I have Braga and Midtjylland going through, with Ludogorets and Red Star Belgrade out, but this is really any team’s group and anything can happen.
Group G: Bayer Leverkusen, Celtic, Ferencvaros, Real Betis
Leverkusen’s first Europa League game will be against Ferencvaros and on the heels of a big match against Dortmund the weekend before. That being said, Leverkusen is the most talented team in this group. Leverkusen is loaded with young talent, particularly in the midfield, and strong play from those young players will be a must to end up top of the group. Leverkusen will also need veteran leadership from Aranguiz, Demirbay, and Alario to be successful, as well as an in form Patrik Schick up top. Betis, though probably not as talented, should also challenge for top of the table in this group. Unlike Leverkusen, most of Betis’ talent also possesses significant European or international experience. Fekir, Bartra, Guardado, and 40-year-old Joaquin all have high level European or World Cup experience, which will be an asset to the team, along with their leadership skills. Celtic was in decent shape to do well in this group until August 31, when star striker, Odsonne Edouard, was sold to Crystal Palace. Without a comparable replacement, Celtic may find goals difficult to come by. Ferencvaros may be competitive in NB I in Hungary, and have a history of being a tough opponent in European competition, but they don’t appear to have the talent to compete with the likes of Leverkusen and Betis. Bayer Leverkusen and Real Betis should advance to the knockout round, with Celtic and Ferencvaros out.
Group H: Dinamo Zagreb, Genk, Rapid Wien, West Ham
West Ham have kept their great form from last season going (minus a draw against Crystal Palace), and should be the favorites to win the group. After rumors during the transfer window didn’t come to fruition, West Ham had a frantic but successful conclusion to the summer transfer window, acquiring Alex Kral to strengthen the defensive midfield and Nikola Vlasic to slot into the attacking midfield spot left empty by Jesse Lingard. With newly acquired Kurt Zouma in the back-line and Tomas Soucek still in form, Declan Rice and crew should be able to finish top of the table in this group. Any of the other three teams in this group could be the other team to qualify for the knockout round. Rapid Wien is a solid side, but without Yusuf Demir (on loan at Barcelona) in a forward/attacking midfield role, the team may lack some creativity necessary in the attacking half. Genk is a good team with experience up top (Paul Onuachu), but has an inexperienced back-line and a 19-year-old goalkeeper who, while an outstanding talent who should go on to achieve great success, does not have any senior international or significant European experience, making him potentially prone to mistakes. Dinamo Zagreb is a team who has acquired experience over the last 12 months (Ristovski and Misic), has a goalkeeper with international experience, and has a big, experienced striker up top in Bruno Petkovic. Because Dinamo Zagreb is probably the second-best team in this group, West Ham and Dinamo should go through to the knockout rounds, with Genk and Rapid Wien out.
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