In the interest of transparency, I would like to make a disclosure: I am of Italian descent. If Italy is in a competition and the United States is not in that competition, I cheer for the Azzurri. I celebrated at home when Italy won the Euros on penalties, and I felt some sting of defeat when they lost to Macedonia in injury time. That said, the Euro Championship and the World Cup Qualifiers debacle creates a dichotomy between success and failure and an interesting question: How does a team go from European Champions to missing out on the World Cup in a matter of 8 months?
Background
A short background is needed to understand the success/failure dichotomy. During the 2020 UEFA European Championship, which took place in June and July 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic, saw Italy defeat Turkey, Switzerland, and Wales in the Group Stage. Italy then defeated Austria in the Quarterfinal, Belgium in the Semifinal, and England at home (Wembley Stadium) on penalties in the Final. Italy managed to go 7-0 during the Euros, defeating three teams (potentially four, depending on Wales) who will be 2022 World Cup participants, and defeated a top 10 team in its home stadium in the Final. In short, the 2020 Euros was the most success the Azzurri achieved since its 2006 World Cup victory. But, as stated above, this dichotomy also includes failure.
Italy, despite all of its success in the Euros, underperformed that success during the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers. After starting the Qualifiers with 3 straight wins, the Azzurri drew four of its final five matches and dropped below Switzerland in Group C, leaving the Azzurri with only one option to qualify for the World Cup: the European World Cup playoff. After controlling the match against North Macedonia for a mostly unremarkable 90 minutes, Aleksandar Trajkovski scored from outside the box in the 92nd minute. With only three minutes left, the Azzurri failed to get level with the North Macedonians and thus failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
Now that everyone’s caught up, let’s examine the factors that led to Italy’s successes and failures.
Factor #1: Match Scheduling
The first potential factor is the European Championship versus World Cup Qualifier schedule. The European Championship is played during the summer, when clubs do not have games and while players are recovering and resting from a long season. Italy’s 2020 Euros included 7 games over the course of one month (June 11 – July 11). During the time, the Azzurri stayed together and trained together. The Azzurri did not play together for a week, only to go back to their respective club team for a number of months before reuniting to once again attempt to qualify for a major tournament.
In contrast, the World Cup qualifying games are played much more sporadically. Players for the national teams get together for 10 days to two weeks at a time, play two to three games during that period, then players travel back to their respective club teams and resume the club season. This can create an inconsistent schedule that can be detrimental to some teams, both national and club.
Factor #2: Federico Chiesa
The second factor in Italy’s success at the Euros but failure to qualify for the World Cup is one player: Federico Chiesa. Chiesa, who is on loan at Juventus from Fiorentina but will likely secure a permanent transfer to the Bianconeri this summer, was nothing short of a revelation during the 2020 Euros. Chiesa’s 2020 European Championship performance and 2020/2021 club season was so impressive that he was awarded Best Attacker of the Competition and the Italian 2021 Men’s Footballer of the Year. However, in January 2022, Chiesa injured his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the club season and the World Cup Playoff. Instead of having the Best Attacker of the 2020 Euros Competition, Italy started Domenico Berardi. Berardi is a solid right winger, who has had a great season at Sassuolo and is the subject of some significant transfer speculation, but he is not Federico Chiesa. Italy had 32 shots during the World Cup Playoff, but only 5 of those shots were on goal. With that volume of shots, yet only 15% of the shots on target, Italy surely would have benefited from Chiesa in the line-up against North Macedonia. Chiesa is an outstanding talent and a star for the Azzurri; however, we will have to wait at least four years to see if he can guide them to a World Cup.
Factor #3: Squad Form and Availability
The third factor in Italy’s success at the Euros but failure to qualify for the World Cup is the form and squad selection. The form discussed here is the form of individual players, not necessarily the form of the overall team, although individual form obviously affects the overall team.
During the Italy’s success at the Euros, players in key positions like Ciro Immobile, Leonardo Bonucci, Insigne, Jorginho, and Donnarumma were all in peak form. Each of these players were performing at peak levels; some of these players played the best soccer of their careers. Even players that play a more “supporting” role, such as Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli, were in great form.
In contrast, these players were not in peak form during Italy’s World Cup qualification failure. Immobile was inconsistent (in the last 6 WC qualifying games, excluding the match against Lithuania, Italy scored 2 goals), Jorginho and Insigne were not in peak form, Bonucci was injured for the decisive qualifier playoff match, and Donnarumma has been in poor form since his move to and inconsistent playing time at PSG. The “supporting” players like Barella and Locatelli were either injured or just average. To make it out of the UEFA Qualifier, players (and teams) need to be better than just average.
Conclusion
The aforementioned three key factors, and likely many more, led to Italy’s failure to qualify for the second straight World Cup. The Azzurri missed out in 2018, will miss out in 2022, and qualifying for 2026 is clearly not guaranteed. My personal belief is that the World Cup is more fun and overall better when Italy participates, but I recognize my bias in the matter; however, one thing is clear: the World Cup qualifying schedule does not appear to be changing, so the Azzurri will need to be in better form and will need key players like Federico Chiesa to be healthy to maximize their chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
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